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SpartanPhalanx
11-05-2014, 07:30 PM
I have played this game for about 6 months now, and have reached level 250, and over that period I must have won thousands of Bronze Keys, hundreds of Silver Keys, and scores of Gold Keys. And altogether, how many UR units have they yielded? JUST ONE! And not a very good one either! Now they keep telling us that it is all random, and so that should indeed be the case, but I have studied Statistics, and I know what random looks like, and just one UR from that lot does not look like random to me! By my reckoning I should have had about 10 UR by now. What do you guys think?

eagleProphet
11-05-2014, 08:23 PM
I have played this game for about 6 months now, and have reached level 250, and over that period I must have won thousands of Bronze Keys, hundreds of Silver Keys, and scores of Gold Keys. And altogether, how many UR units have they yielded? JUST ONE! And not a very good one either! Now they keep telling us that it is all random, and so that should indeed be the case, but I have studied Statistics, and I know what random looks like, and just one UR from that lot does not look like random to me! By my reckoning I should have had about 10 UR by now. What do you guys think?

Depends on what you mean by random. Every time you open a chest, you have a very high chance of receiving training fodder; and every time you open a chest, you have an extraordinarily low chance of receiving a UR unit of any kind.

SpartanPhalanx
11-06-2014, 12:56 AM
Depends on what you mean by random. Every time you open a chest, you have a very high chance of receiving training fodder; and every time you open a chest, you have an extraordinarily low chance of receiving a UR unit of any kind.

In Statistics "random" means that there is no bias in the process. You should have an equal chance of getting any one of all the units on offer. Of course, because there are fewer UR units over all, you will get those less often. But over time you should end up with the same percentage. If only 10 percent of units are UR, then eventually roughly 10 percent of what you get should be UR.

CJCJ
11-06-2014, 03:59 AM
In Statistics "random" means that there is no bias in the process. You should have an equal chance of getting any one of all the units on offer. Of course, because there are fewer UR units over all, you will get those less often. But over time you should end up with the same percentage. If only 10 percent of units are UR, then eventually roughly 10 percent of what you get should be UR.

I don't think its random in the sense you are thinking about it. They don't put one of every unit in the game into a bucket and the RNG spits one of them out. I think each unit is given a weight and they have some calculations as to when it gets divvied out. There's a reason that its much easier to get useless 'Janbaya' or 'Peoples Dagger' Rares instead of a nice big Janissary.

SpartanPhalanx
11-06-2014, 10:05 AM
I don't think its random in the sense you are thinking about it. They don't put one of every unit in the game into a bucket and the RNG spits one of them out. I think each unit is given a weight and they have some calculations as to when it gets divvied out. There's a reason that its much easier to get useless 'Janbaya' or 'Peoples Dagger' Rares instead of a nice big Janissary.

Yes, you are exactly right. But there is no confusion about what RANDOM means. They claim that the process is random when clearly it isn't.
Take a look at Gold Keys only. We don't know the exact numbers, but let's be generous to Gree and say that the distribution is as follows - 70 percent of all units available are Rare, 20 percent are SuperRare, and only 10 percent are UltraRare. If the process is truly random, then based on those numbers we would still expect to get, on average, one UR from every 10 Gold Chests that we open. Or put another way, 100 Gold Chests should give you, on average, about 70 Rare units, 20 SR, and 10 UR. But of course, as we know, nobody is being that successful. There is a strong bias against us getting SR and UR units, and a strong bias in favour of us getting the rubbishy Rare units.
Now if that's the way Gree want to operate, that's fine. But they should stop insulting our intelligence by claiming that it's all random when, as I said, it clearly isn't.

eagleProphet
11-06-2014, 11:11 AM
It's as random as the powerball lottery. It's the poor odds that you are really complaining about.

SpartanPhalanx
11-06-2014, 05:21 PM
It's as random as the powerball lottery. It's the poor odds that you are really complaining about.

That is not correct. It is not random at all, it is rigged. What percentage of units are UltraRare? Unless you know that you cannot calculate the odds. One thing is for sure - the odds should be better than one in a hundred, which is what I have been getting.

SpartanPhalanx
11-07-2014, 01:50 PM
Latest news - can you believe this?! My last 4 Gold Keys have yielded - Apollo Nuke, Apollo Nuke, Great Bombard, Great Bombard! You couldn't make it up! Are they taking the piss?!

Patches
11-07-2014, 02:03 PM
ouch, that's gotta feel like a complete waste of your time.

personally I've found saving 10 gold keys at a time are the way to go before redeeming. I often get 1 or 2 super rare and half the time 1 ultra rare. I've experienced similar results though in their double opportunity good chest giveaways.

SpartanPhalanx
11-08-2014, 01:30 PM
ouch, that's gotta feel like a complete waste of your time.

personally I've found saving 10 gold keys at a time are the way to go before redeeming. I often get 1 or 2 super rare and half the time 1 ultra rare. I've experienced similar results though in their double opportunity good chest giveaways.

It would take me weeks to save 10 Gold Keys. And in the meantime, waiting behind that first key, could be a great unit that I could have been using throughout that period.
There is no logical reason why saving them up should produce a better outcome. Sounds like you've just been very lucky.

I have never understood the business model for this game. They want us to spend real money, to buy Gold Bars, to buy Gold Keys, but as we all know, from bitter experience, the chances of getting anything really good from a Gold Key are ridiculously low. So there is no incentive to spend.

Every other game I have ever played has always had a Store where you could buy specific items. This is the only game I have ever encountered where they expect you to buy a ticket in a very expensive lottery and just hope for the best.

Patches
11-08-2014, 01:51 PM
Yes, it takes a week and a half to 2 weeks to save 10 keys. Redeem everytime if you want, but I'm certain your results will be poor getting Rares that are useless. This game is a marathon whether liked or not, no sprints here.

eagleProphet
11-08-2014, 08:06 PM
I'm a hoarder. Currently, I have 30 gold keys, 50 silver and 53 bronze.

Fynrfin
11-09-2014, 04:01 AM
It would be good to know if there is difference between several at one time or one at a time. For silver and bronze keys I have not noticed a difference.

SpartanPhalanx
11-09-2014, 05:48 PM
I'm a hoarder. Currently, I have 30 gold keys, 50 silver and 53 bronze.

What a waste! Just think of all the good units that could be waiting there for you, that you could be using to win even more keys and prizes!

User271320
11-10-2014, 09:04 AM
What a waste! Just think of all the good units that could be waiting there for you, that you could be using to win even more keys and prizes!

I don't think it's a waste. I have 12 gold keys, 40 silver and 50 bronze. It's pointless to open chests and get a bunch of useless uncommon and rare units. I have over 200 uncommon and rare units already that are waiting to be used to feed units to promote them (if I ever get a worthwhile UR unit).

I'm holding onto my keys in hopes Gree will allow me to turn in bronze keys to get silver, then silver to get gold. And maybe change the odds and grant more SR and UR units. Just a thought, but imagine 10 bronze for 1 silver and 10 silver for 1 gold.

SpartanPhalanx
11-10-2014, 08:58 PM
I don't think it's a waste. I have 12 gold keys, 40 silver and 50 bronze. It's pointless to open chests and get a bunch of useless uncommon and rare units. I have over 200 uncommon and rare units already that are waiting to be used to feed units to promote them (if I ever get a worthwhile UR unit).

I'm holding onto my keys in hopes Gree will allow me to turn in bronze keys to get silver, then silver to get gold. And maybe change the odds and grant more SR and UR units. Just a thought, but imagine 10 bronze for 1 silver and 10 silver for 1 gold.

I think you'll be waiting a very long time for Gree to make your dreams come true.

And in the meantime, who knows what you might get from those keys. It's a waste because they are not doing you any good just sitting there.

eagleProphet
11-11-2014, 02:57 AM
It gets worse. Not only do I have 31 gold keys, 58 silver and 76 bronze, I also have 4 energy refills, 42 energy boosts, 22 morale refills, 89 morale boosts, 10 officers and 32 trainers. Like I said, I'm a hoarder. :)

CJCJ
11-11-2014, 04:57 AM
It gets worse. Not only do I have 31 gold keys, 58 silver and 76 bronze, I also have 4 energy refills, 42 energy boosts, 22 morale refills, 89 morale boosts, 10 officers and 32 trainers. Like I said, I'm a hoarder. :)

I have a 'backup' supply too and I don't think its a bad thing or makes me a hoarder. The gold keys are waiting for a 'double-chance' drop. And the energy/morale storage is for when the reward is really good, but the points really stink and I need it to play. So far I haven't NOT gotten something that I wanted because I didn't want to touch my supply... now THAT would make me a hoarder!

User271320
11-11-2014, 07:14 AM
It gets worse. Not only do I have 31 gold keys, 58 silver and 76 bronze, I also have 4 energy refills, 42 energy boosts, 22 morale refills, 89 morale boosts, 10 officers and 32 trainers. Like I said, I'm a hoarder. :)

Heck, since we're sharing, I'm up to having 8 energy refills, 22 morale refills, 34 energy boosts, 31 morale boosts, 104 bronze keys, 49 silver, and 14 gold and about 30 trainers. My squad is level 30 UR Commoner, level 30 UR Attalus, level 50 Eurydice, level 50 Sejanus, and level 50 Sagittarius. And I HAVEN'T SPENT A DIME. :-)

but seriously, my squad was completely built from completing missions. Now with the sub-par rewards, I can't look forward to getting anything good. No way opening my 168 total keys will give me anything close to what I have already. I'll probably end up with a bunch of kopis' and apollo nukes

SpartanPhalanx
11-11-2014, 08:06 AM
Finally, conclusive proof for me that the Gold Keys are not random - my last 7 have yielded 2 Great Bombards and 3 Apollo Nukes. The Laws of Probability would suggest that in a truly random process such an outcome would be extremely unlikely.

CJCJ
11-11-2014, 08:37 AM
Ugh. For 'fun' a while ago I maxed out one of those things. Tried many times to deploy it and have it fire so I could watch the mushroom cloud and damn, it is a hard thing to use! It is SO defenseless that you need a good army in front of it. But if you have that, you'll win the battle before it fires because it is SO slow to shoot. Pretty useless PoS.

But, if you train it to 20, that 500 cost does a good job in training something better!

User271320
11-11-2014, 08:46 AM
Ugh. For 'fun' a while ago I maxed out one of those things. Tried many times to deploy it and have it fire so I could watch the mushroom cloud and damn, it is a hard thing to use! It is SO defenseless that you need a good army in front of it. But if you have that, you'll win the battle before it fires because it is SO slow to shoot. Pretty useless PoS.

But, if you train it to 20, that 500 cost does a good job in training something better!

But, with the UR units on steroids, I think my level 30 attalus and level 30 commoners do more damage with one shot than a fully maxed apollo nuke.

CJCJ
11-11-2014, 09:04 AM
But, with the UR units on steroids, I think my level 30 attalus and level 30 commoners do more damage with one shot than a fully maxed apollo nuke.

Right, so this useless big gun is now a VERY useless medium gun.

eagleProphet
11-11-2014, 10:39 AM
Apollo Nuke / Great Bombard should be downgraded to Common where it belongs.

eagleProphet
11-12-2014, 08:48 PM
I just picked up 2 UR Sahures to max out my other two. The chests do seem to provide units in clusters. I remember I once got about 6 SR Harvesters in one day.

SpartanPhalanx
11-13-2014, 10:23 AM
I just picked up 2 UR Sahures to max out my other two. The chests do seem to provide units in clusters. I remember I once got about 6 SR Harvesters in one day.

That is quite extraordinary! There is no way that is just random. It's almost as if a conscious decision was taken to give you those. Could it be that Gree have noticed you on here, a regular contributor, a much-respected and influential voice, and they think that by secretly giving you some sort of special treatment they might get you on side, or at least soften your criticism? A bit fanciful I know, but I am struggling to understand your incredible good luck.

Patches
11-13-2014, 11:09 AM
Well lol...I always wait for 10 gold keys before redeeming. I got them this morning. I got 2 Apollo Nukes, 1 Might of the Worker, 1 Equality Scout, and a bunch of other trash. Not even a Super Rare. So much for my streak I posted earlier in a thread. They've all been trained into some stuff I've had in inventory.

DOOMDEALER
11-13-2014, 12:42 PM
The point of this game is to build an awesome, elite squad right? And to deploy those units in an epic battle. But the battles now play on auto and the rewards (both earned and purchased) yield almost only useless training fodder.. So what are we doing? My wife has been saying this is a complete waste of time for months now and I've been defending it. I just don't know anymore..

paigesfury
11-13-2014, 02:48 PM
I have not gotten anything even slightly useful out of a chest in a LONG time. The last time they had their double chance drop, I used 9 Golds and got a bunch of trash. The Bronze/Silver keys are now a complete waste because even if you are lucky enough to get a Rare - who cares? With the power change, Rares do nothing to help. In 6 months, I don't think I've received any SR or UR from a Silver chest. Right now I have 140 Bronze keys and 85 Silver keys that will most likely be used to train something else. I also have 25 Gold keys saved that I will open if they ever do the double chance drop again - but I am not overly optimistic as to what I will receive.

I think it is pretty crappy that they have made it nearly impossible to get good units without spending a boatload of money. People that spend money are going to spend money and people that don't, won't. It doesn't really matter what Gree does with points/power/et al., some players will spend and some won't. However, they need to keep some of the better units (i.e., LVL 50 SR and at least LVL 30 UR) within reach for those of us that don't pay because without us, there would be no one for the paying players to beat up on. With the power changes and the diminished rewards they are offering, there is not a ton of incentive to keep playing.

SpartanPhalanx
11-13-2014, 05:37 PM
A few months back I would have highly recommended this game, but now I am becoming increasingly disappointed with it. Expecting us to spend several hours a day, for an entire week, ploughing through something like 90 levels just to win one or two SR units could well be the final straw.

SpartanPhalanx
11-14-2014, 09:20 AM
This is getting ridiculous! My last 9 Gold Keys have yielded 1 Might Of The Worker, 2 Great Bombards, and 3 Apollo Nukes. Gree knows that these are probably the least desirable of all the Rare units, but they just keep on giving them to me. It is an insult! It is as if they are saying - "We know you put in all that time and effort to win what you thought was a good prize - well tough! Here's another load of rubbish for you! That's how much we value you as a player." I don't think Gree fully appreciate the effect this is having. I sense a rising tide of anger. We just want to be treated fairly, that's all.

eagleProphet
11-14-2014, 10:08 AM
In my experience, it's like Blackjack but with the odds much more in favor of the house. The low cards predominate. The cards are not well shuffled, so clumps of Apollo Nukes are common. For the same reason, when the deck is hot you can come away with a handful of coveted cards.

SpartanPhalanx
11-14-2014, 04:15 PM
In my experience, it's like Blackjack but with the odds much more in favor of the house. The low cards predominate. The cards are not well shuffled, so clumps of Apollo Nukes are common. For the same reason, when the deck is hot you can come away with a handful of coveted cards.
Well I must admit that it has totally demoralised and demotivated me. You spend hours trying to win something worthwhile only to discover that it was all in vain.

SpartanPhalanx
11-14-2014, 04:30 PM
I just don't get the logic. Given the very poor rate of return, why would anybody even consider spending real money on Gold Keys? It's almost as if they are deliberately trying to put us off the idea. Crazy!

eagleProphet
11-14-2014, 04:42 PM
I don't get it either. A lot of people would pay real money for an Orontes, but for play gold to get another key?

Ldomino
11-16-2014, 09:35 AM
Yeah, I had that happen a while back except I got 6 nukes from 9 gold keys. It's infuriating. The only thing nukes are good for is training fodder. The most useless unit in the game.