PDA

View Full Version : Gold Chest Bonus question for Mods



KCjamss
11-20-2014, 11:48 AM
So I know it says there is a 20% increased chance of getting something that isn't a rare but I don't know what the starting % is for getting one. I assume rare units carry a higher weight in the RNG but how much? Can one of the mods enlighten us on the regular chances of getting a SR or UR unit?

Just to clarify I will give an example, greatly simplified. Let's say when you open the gold chest you are going to get a letter in the alphabet. Vowels are worth more (vowels are UR and SR). For each A how many Bs are in the pot? Are my chances of getting a vowel 5/26, 5/47, 5/94....... Since there are more consonants than vowels I get that it is less likely they will show up but I want to know if the Bs are counted 2 times for every A or 5 time and so on.

I hope my question made sense and if not I can elaborate. I am looking forward to a response from a mod even if it is "not sure I will ask", "we don't give that info"(really hope that's not what I get).
Thanks!

Ldomino
11-20-2014, 02:19 PM
I have asked this question many times. So far, Gree has chosen not to enlighten us. The odds are vanishingly small. They just had a special guaranteeing ONE SR unit in every 11 gold warchests. Less than 10%. And that was a "special." So, far less than 10% normally would be the obvious conclusion I guess. Add a 20% higher chance to the 10% offered in the special and you get a 10.2% chance. It's definitely not even that high normally. It's very misleading.

Ratma2001
11-20-2014, 02:23 PM
So I know it says there is a 20% increased chance of getting something that isn't a rare but I don't know what the starting % is for getting one. I assume rare units carry a higher weight in the RNG but how much? Can one of the mods enlighten us on the regular chances of getting a SR or UR unit?

Just to clarify I will give an example, greatly simplified. Let's say when you open the gold chest you are going to get a letter in the alphabet. Vowels are worth more (vowels are UR and SR). For each A how many Bs are in the pot? Are my chances of getting a vowel 5/26, 5/47, 5/94....... Since there are more consonants than vowels I get that it is less likely they will show up but I want to know if the Bs are counted 2 times for every A or 5 time and so on.

I hope my question made sense and if not I can elaborate. I am looking forward to a response from a mod even if it is "not sure I will ask", "we don't give that info"(really hope that's not what I get).
Thanks!

You wont get an answer for this , this is one of the Super Secrets that only Devs have ....but in saying that i would assume 1/260 maybe more!
it normally works by what you already have so if you have 3 (Vowels) then you chance just dropped to say 1/780 rather than 2 at 1/520 and so on, we studied this in KA and the more you have the less you get , so you have to keep spending more to get less, or they give you less to get more either way the system works against you.
but you have already given them the answer you want .
put it this way i used to spend $700 a month on KA was mighty powerful , got sick took of a month came back and was millions behind ! so spending went out the door i just play the game now, i dont spend that amount maybe $20 here and there but it has to be justified to spend...spend 600 gold bars get 1 SR = Sucker Repeated ...everytime you spend you get diddly squat unless new Chest or set of new units .
good luck

paigesfury
11-20-2014, 02:38 PM
I don't know what the usual odds are, but with the 20% bonus, its still not great, and I would also point out that I think certain less desirable SR/UR units are much more common than those SR/UR units we actually want. I opened 30 chests today - all from saved keys, nothing purchased - and received 1 UR (Brasides) and 2 SR (one Hestatus Prime and one Gebel I). None of these are likely to make it into my squad anytime soon, but at least this time I actually received UR/SR units. The last time they had one of these 'increased' chance offerings I opened 18 gold chests and received 18 completely useless Rs.

Based on the last 48 golds I've opened, I've received 1 UR and 2 SR (i.e., about a 2% chance of UR; 4% chance of SR) and these were both during the increased chance offerings. So in actuality, I don't think their 20% increase does much: 20% of 2% or 20% of 4% is not much of an increase.

KCjamss
11-20-2014, 03:16 PM
That's not a huge surprise that the chances are very low. I don't mind that the good units are hard to get but I think if their promotion is based off of a percentage increase they would be able to share what the normal percentages are. 20% of 1 is a huge difference between 20% of 10. I just find something off about saying x will increase your chances x% during the promotion verses your chances will be x% of getting x during the promotion. Without both numbers it is not possible to figure out if it is worth it or not.

I have played Modern War for most of this year so if I am being tested to see when I will spend money on this game it will be a long wait. Can't afford MW and LoW. It is nice to know that the worse my units are the higher my chances for better ones is because I'm still new and am trying to build a decent squad.

I did end up using the 4 gold keys I have gotten over the last two weeks and ended up with 4 rare units. Of the four 1 was an ok one and the rest I used to train it so I could promote my other one.

If someone from Gree could chime in that would be great but until then I would be interested in hearing what others have seen as far as opening gold chests.

SpartanPhalanx
11-21-2014, 12:35 AM
Their last offer, guaranteeing at least one SR for every 11 Chests opened, was an admission that under normal circumstances it would be entirely possible to open 11 and not get a single SR or UR.

This current offer - I am not sure what "20% Bonus" means. If it means a 20% better chance of getting an SR or UR, then instead of 1 in 15 say, it would become 1.2 in 15, in other words, an insignificant improvement.

KCjamss
11-21-2014, 08:41 AM
Yes it sparked my curiosity as to what the base number is.

Gree, giving us some idea of probabilities will not hurt your sales! Tons of people buy lottery tickets and those odds are posted on the tickets. I'm sure they are no where near that bad.

SpartanPhalanx
11-21-2014, 10:58 AM
Yes it sparked my curiosity as to what the base number is.

Gree, giving us some idea of probabilities will not hurt your sales! Tons of people buy lottery tickets and those odds are posted on the tickets. I'm sure they are no where near that bad.

They will never reveal the probabilities. They want us to think that we stand a better chance than we actually do. Their entire business model for this game is based around an assumption that the vast majority of players are ignorant and stupid.

KCjamss
11-21-2014, 01:10 PM
Well they may not be wrong. No where have I found a large group of people that doesn't consist of a larger than you would think group of idiots.

Knowing the odds won't change how I play or spend.

garen argon
11-21-2014, 06:05 PM
lol...the odds are like one in a million.

now they're 1.2 in a million.

just have fun.

this game is also about to die...ah gree; when will you figure it out?

garen argon
11-21-2014, 06:06 PM
rat - are you still playing KA or did you finally retire

KCjamss
11-22-2014, 01:02 AM
Never played KA only MW. From what I hear we are in a similar situation as KA. Little works correct, mods say to contact support and support doesn't respond, many unable to log in. Well to be fair I am using today's examples. That's why I started to check out LoW.

I have been stuck on one of the invasion levels for 36 hrs but since I won't spend on this game I am happy to keep trying.

Fynrfin
11-22-2014, 05:14 AM
We can do the math ourselves if we collect enough data. I just used 23 gold keys got one UR and three SRs, please post what you get and we can caculte the odds. Until Gree changes them.

Ldomino
11-22-2014, 10:54 AM
I opened 10 gold warchests, from gold bars, not keys. I got 1 SR unit. This was not during the 1 in 11 special, it was during the 20% "bonus" special. I opened four chests from gold keys over a period of a couple of days and got 2 SR units and 1 UR unit, which has never happened to me before. They weren't great units: an Ikenga, 2 Revolutions Purity drones (I already have one of these promoted to 50--wish there was a way to exchange them because I'm sure someone would like to have them), and a Cleo tank. It seems like once in a great, great while you can hit a cluster of SR or UR units, but there are very long droughts in between. I can't remember getting this many SR or UR units ever before and I don't expect to have it happen again anytime soon. It's just pure luck of the draw. I'm not sure you can calculate the odds accurately because there seem to be outliers. But you can probably come up with an average. Is like to know why a so-called random program will dump 4 Apollo nukes in a row on you or, as happened to me the other day, two Revolution's Purity drones in something like 6 chances.

Ozstriker
11-22-2014, 03:13 PM
43 gold keys = 5sr units, a dozen or 15 Apollo nukes, great bombards and a lot of useless R units except a hasteus prime I wanted.. The SR` were nothing special either.. Such a shame, with these low odds (even with an additional 20%) why would anyone wanna spend money?...

SpartanPhalanx
11-22-2014, 09:56 PM
43 gold keys = 5sr units, a dozen or 15 Apollo nukes, great bombards and a lot of useless R units except a hasteus prime I wanted.. The SR` were nothing special either.. Such a shame, with these low odds (even with an additional 20%) why would anyone wanna spend money?...

There must be enough people out there who have not yet discovered the truth about the keys who are still spending.

These bogus offers and the very poor value for money display an utter contempt by Gree for their customers.

Striker1111
12-04-2014, 11:41 AM
What I find interesting is that during the event if you open ten keys at a time then you get more SR but when I go through one at a time I don't see a major difference opening them during a Gold key event vs not during an event. Maybe since we all really want UR units now make it so the event is a 30% higher chance to get UR instead of UR and SR. I just really want to see UR's come from chests again and during these events all I still see is SR.

Parabellum
12-07-2014, 06:36 AM
Just collected some gold keys and waited for a increased oportunity at opening the chest... (30%) and got same and all rare level units..

Gree is in the GAMBLING side of the spectrum, for me its a no-no for spending real money... I suposse that eventually this will be forbiden by law with this oportunity to gain that desguisses pure and simple gambling... And with real money... Hope that that some smart attorney creates a class suit to stop this behaviour from "game" companies like Gree... As for me I just play until this is fixed with a legitimate way to obtain better units, or the game stops being entertaining...

Ratma2001
12-07-2014, 02:14 PM
look at it this way ..in KA they have now put you % chance on things like this...so to bring it here is like
UR 6% chance
SR 27% chance
so with a 30% increase you now have
7.8% chance for UR
35.1% chance for SR
not a real big increse but still an increase , i mean why spend real $$ for 1.8% or even 8.1% for that matter.....
thats the base line on which you should work with, so not a good 30% depending on which way they calulate it
A Genuine 30% would be 6% = 8.57% and 27% = 38.57% chance increase.

SpartanPhalanx
12-07-2014, 07:04 PM
To put it in an even simpler way - if your chance of getting a UR were 1 in 20, then a 30% better chance would be 1.3 in 20.

Even if they doubled your chance - a 100% increase - it would still only be 2 in 20.

They are relying on the fact that most people don't understand numbers.

Striker1111
12-08-2014, 03:49 PM
Yeah it used to be a double drop and you still got plenty of rares during those. I'm just surprised the chances got even worse this time around. Last 30% drop I accidentally opened ten at a time (I prefer doing one at a time) and got three SR. This time I talked to a lot of people who opened ten at a time and they got all rare. People went through 15 - 20 keys and got one SR unit. I miss the old days when I first started and even without getting hardly any event rewards I was still getting a good squad through chests.

SpartanPhalanx
12-08-2014, 08:42 PM
I think I know what started all of this. Everywhere I kept seeing people saying that they could make good progress in this game without spending a cent. That must have really irked Gree. So now they are gradually creating a situation where you are unable to make any significant progress without spending a lot of real money.

WarZoneFare
12-08-2014, 11:06 PM
I think I know what started all of this. Everywhere I kept seeing people saying that they could make good progress in this game without spending a cent. That must have really irked Gree. So now they are gradually creating a situation where you are unable to make any significant progress without spending a lot of real money.

Plenty of people were bragging about how well they're doing without spending a dime and calling those who were spending crazy or foolish. Those messages could have irritated Gree to some degree. They need our money to pay the salaries of their programmers. There is no free lunch in the world.

HYE
12-09-2014, 12:17 AM
Opened 60 gold chest - 4 SR and rest all R unit.

Fynrfin
12-09-2014, 01:32 AM
Opened 60 gold chest - 4 SR and rest all R unit.
Ouch. The already low percentage must have gone down, i have opened 8 and all rares

SpartanPhalanx
12-09-2014, 08:40 AM
Plenty of people were bragging about how well they're doing without spending a dime and calling those who were spending crazy or foolish. Those messages could have irritated Gree to some degree. They need our money to pay the salaries of their programmers. There is no free lunch in the world.

Very true. But the very thing they want us to buy, Gold Keys, are gradually becoming less and less good value. Simple economics - if you want to sell more, make them cheaper, or better value, or both.

SpartanPhalanx
12-09-2014, 08:45 AM
Even before they worsened the odds, some bloke spent one thousand dollars on Gold Keys and the best he ended up with was an Orontes 30.

WarZoneFare
12-09-2014, 09:38 AM
I guess u meant gold bars which are for sale.

Ratma2001
12-09-2014, 02:10 PM
I opened 5 Golds and guess what AWESOMENESS thing i got !??? Might of the Worker ....how ironic !
like i need another one of those like a hole in the head !
the rest were low Rares not worth a nut to a racoon !
i have stopped playing now , things have gotten outta control and the prizes are useless ! the drops and opens even worse.
My little player cant even get to Boss 11 with rares cause they are all Cr@p !!C'Mon Gree look at the big picture !

Tadaaah
12-09-2014, 02:28 PM
While I can say I honestly do not know the exact percentage for this, if you were to open 11 at once, your chance for an SR should be pretty high.

Ratma2001
12-09-2014, 02:58 PM
While I can say I honestly do not know the exact percentage for this, if you were to open 11 at once, your chance for an SR should be pretty high.

Welcome Back Tadaah ! so if i buy 11 Gold chests and dont get a SR unit will they give me 11 more free of charge..given my chances SHOULD be higher ?? and would you take back thr units back if all rares ?
Just trying to establish a better drop system to influence my spenders, as you can see this is currently a sore point with most players.
Thankyou for your time and effort in this matter

Dunringill
12-09-2014, 04:38 PM
Under normal circumstances, I would spend some money under the current gold promo. Having only gotten rares in the last 20+ gold keys though (and lousy ones at that) I will not spend real money. And my days of playing the game are coming to an end.

You need to give people a little hope, and that's not happening.

Tadaaah
12-09-2014, 04:43 PM
Welcome Back Tadaah ! so if i buy 11 Gold chests and dont get a SR unit will they give me 11 more free of charge..given my chances SHOULD be higher ?? and would you take back thr units back if all rares ?
Just trying to establish a better drop system to influence my spenders, as you can see this is currently a sore point with most players.
Thankyou for your time and effort in this matter

I cannot guarantee anything. It is still ultimately up to chance.

WarZoneFare
12-09-2014, 05:25 PM
Define "pretty high", please. Is 7% pretty high? What about the chance for an UR unit if opening 11 chests at the same time?

SpartanPhalanx
12-09-2014, 07:38 PM
I cannot guarantee anything. It is still ultimately up to chance.

This goes to the heart of the problem. Why should our reward be the subject of chance? If we achieve a particular objective then we should be properly rewarded for that. Just giving us a ticket in a rigged lottery is not good enough. Gree seem to think we should just shrug our shoulders and say "Ah well, better luck next time". But when you put in time and effort and repeatedly that is not properly rewarded then that just destroys incentive and motivation.

The whole Key system needs to be revamped. I have a solution that would make it very fair and truly random but Gree would not be interested because they think that the current system earns them more money. They are being shortsighted.