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View Full Version : After Diamond 5 - Chest loot method solved



erik
02-10-2012, 07:21 AM
Indisputable statistical evidence for successful looting after Diamond 5 (using the medium option).

As we know, it becomes more difficult to loot after Diamond 5.

There are 3 ways to loot a chest .

1. Daytime working loots. These loots are completely random, and will match the expected ratio of 50% success . (3/6 yesterday)

2. Early morning and Evening anticipation loots. These loots are over managed and put under a high level of pressure. The counter is often watched for the last 2 minutes or more. These loots can expect a 0% success rate. (0-7 last night, 0-1 this morning)

3. Groggy alarmed sleep loots. These loots lack any pressure at all, and are more a Pavlovian response than anything. Expected success rate is 100%. (4-4 overnight, 1 Diamond)

I will be experimenting today with varying amounts of Turkey consumption and riding the Tryptophan wave to success.

Any deviation from this success model means that Anubis stole your loot.

Vile Lynn
02-10-2012, 07:26 AM
As we know, it becomes more difficult to loot after Diamond 5.

Do we?
Is that in the game or are we really just assuming Funzio made it that way?

erik
02-10-2012, 07:29 AM
Anecdotal evidence seems to strongly back up a declining probability of a Diamond as your # possessed increases. Max just got his sig after opening 20 chests after his 9th Diamond.

CounterSniper
02-10-2012, 07:34 AM
Do we?
Is that in the game or are we really just assuming Funzio made it that way?


I got my first 5 within the first 7 hours and only 1 in the last 18 or so hours with similar stats as described by erik.

erik
02-10-2012, 07:41 AM
Confirmed.

1st post turkey daytime sleepy loot. (1/1) Diamond. #7

Amber_
02-10-2012, 05:52 PM
Is this in EST?

Bruiser
02-10-2012, 05:55 PM
Is this in EST?

Or DSEST??? :)

erik
02-10-2012, 08:59 PM
This is EST. My day has been terrible since the turkey wore off despite attempting 22 of 24 possible attempts for the day overall. Looking forward to night 2 of alarms which can only mean that I will loot 2 diamonds or accidently buy 1500 gold.



__________________

1st 24hrs - 10/17 - 5 Diamonds

2nd 24hrs - 9/22 - 2 Diamonds

3rd 24hrs - 2/3 - 0 Diamonds

21/42 - 50%

jaywalker
02-11-2012, 12:28 AM
As most, it seems, I am at 5 as well. I don't see the need for crying just yet though, asyou still have 5 days and 30 minutes left to crack the last 5. I did 5 in one day (~20 crates)

Ghost818
02-11-2012, 01:34 AM
with me it was the first 4 very easily, i got my 5th one today after 12 failed trys, then about 6 more fails and i got 125k then 25k in a row, ill post on my next one in 45 mins