View Full Version : Think my game is broken

procsyzarc

04-30-2012, 12:12 PM

Ok already know it is in one way, but with this event ever since I started using gold all I have got is bikes (up to about 18 in a row) makes me think what are the actual odds of getting 18 bikes in a row or does this have to be more than freak luck. Might even stop using gold since would prefer nothing to bikes.

Swifty

04-30-2012, 12:33 PM

If you really got 18 bikes in a row, then I am pretty sure that falls well outside a normal binomial distribution result.

So either Funzio's random number generator does not conform, or there are some weird co-factors that produce such anomalous results.

If it were me, my paranoia would kick in, and I would think that Funzio was messing with me.

AppleMacGuy

04-30-2012, 12:34 PM

Well that just can't be right...have you logged a ticket?

Bikes = Enhanced Bikes? Wow, that seems REALLY unlikely...

BeniBugatti

04-30-2012, 01:28 PM

If you say "I'm gonna flip a coin 18 times and get 18 heads", I'd say that's nearly impossible. However, if you had just finished flipping a coin 17 times and each time you had gotten a head, I'd say you have a 50% chance of getting a head on the next flip.

NOTE: I'm a assuming it is a fair coin.

Swifty

04-30-2012, 03:03 PM

Results that fall outside binomial distribution norms call into question whether it is a fair coin.

procsyzarc

04-30-2012, 03:12 PM

Up to 20 now, something is broken I think. There are about 7 possible outcomes (each with diffent odds most likely) to get the same one 20 times in a row would be reaching odds similar to winning the lottery

Ghost818

04-30-2012, 03:19 PM

Up to 20 now, something is broken I think. There are about 7 possible outcomes (each with diffent odds most likely) to get the same one 20 times in a row would be reaching odds similar to winning the lottery

Thats odd, I too got Bikes atleast like 4 or 5 in a row but never 20.

Giedrius

04-30-2012, 03:34 PM

That's my random loots from all events. I'm not 100% sure they all from loots, correct me if i'm wrong:

Rock Tour Bus - 5

Chef's Cleaver - 7

Stone Hammer - 8

Fire Truck - 9

Carnival hammer - 14

Room Sweeper - 15

EU Security Baton - 32

Enhanced Bike - 38

So odds say it's most common drop and if I'm not mistaked it drops only last 2 events, but still 20 in row it's hmmmm. Most streaks I had was like few 5,6. Last event I did loads resets/opens and I had these streaks...

Fig Oni

04-30-2012, 04:04 PM

@OP

Getting 20 in a row is not impossible, but if that did happen it's odd would be like 1:1000000 or greater.

Now the thing I've noticed with the event when a box is successfully opened, the least need item would come up.

So therefore I conclude that stat wise the enhanced bike don't add even a single point to your att/def, if that is true then getting 20 bike in a row is quite the norm.

procsyzarc

04-30-2012, 06:11 PM

I bite the bullet and reported this plus the other thing with loot that is clearly broken with my game (600+ peacemaker items even though done less than 10 times). What’s the bet for being honest and telling them my game is broken despite being completely out of my control I get banned while cheats who blatantly cheat go unchecked.

Yes as stated it is theoretically possible especially if it is the highest rate drop by the post above which works out just under 30% but that info didn’t factor in cash, extra mafia or respect so would be more like 15% on the bike. So any one want to work out the odds of getting a 15% drop 20 times in a row? My guess is bloody low

Swifty

04-30-2012, 07:07 PM

A binomial distribution calculator gives the chances of 20 times in a row as zero (rounded, it is never actually zero, but it is so small that is zero for any practical purposes).

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