Tommy Two Toes

04-26-2013, 12:33 PM

I'm catching construction crates in PvP.

Anyone have the splash or event that goes with them yet?

Anyone have the splash or event that goes with them yet?

View Full Version : Construction Crates

Tommy Two Toes

04-26-2013, 12:33 PM

I'm catching construction crates in PvP.

Anyone have the splash or event that goes with them yet?

Anyone have the splash or event that goes with them yet?

Bala82

04-26-2013, 12:43 PM

got splash screen leaderboard event

Antique Flintlock(141/94)

Decorative helmet (140/208)

Collector Cadilliac (320/214)

ornamental blade (523/429)

TOP 250 CLASSTIC ROADSTER (1086/889)

TOP25 relic armor (2439/3658)

Antique Flintlock(141/94)

Decorative helmet (140/208)

Collector Cadilliac (320/214)

ornamental blade (523/429)

TOP 250 CLASSTIC ROADSTER (1086/889)

TOP25 relic armor (2439/3658)

dudeman

04-26-2013, 12:49 PM

The window for the #1 prize is broken again, not that it will make a difference for 99% of players.

Boxes from robberies are still being counted twice until a restart. Gree is obviously too busy (read: lazy) to fix that.

And cash open rates are in the sh!tter again. If it takes me a full day just to get two friggen items again, I will be passing on this auction event. Again. And if that's any indication of what to expect from these events going forward, Gree can take their auctions and shove 'em. :cool:

Boxes from robberies are still being counted twice until a restart. Gree is obviously too busy (read: lazy) to fix that.

And cash open rates are in the sh!tter again. If it takes me a full day just to get two friggen items again, I will be passing on this auction event. Again. And if that's any indication of what to expect from these events going forward, Gree can take their auctions and shove 'em. :cool:

bimmer kid

04-26-2013, 12:59 PM

your not alone dudeman

AliKat

04-26-2013, 01:11 PM

So as usual the welcome splash when you log in says rewards at 3, 5, 7, 9 & 10, however the splash when you click on to open says 5, 10, 15, 20, & then leader board.... And at the rate they are dropping its ridiculous, just dropped over 70 stamina & for less than 10 boxes

Bala82

04-26-2013, 01:24 PM

i used 20 stamina and got 10 boxes :)

kingofwale

04-26-2013, 01:35 PM

missing boxes again

* got 10,

*reopen app. shows up only 5

*robbed more. got 7

*reopen app. show only 6

COME ON!!!!!

* got 10,

*reopen app. shows up only 5

*robbed more. got 7

*reopen app. show only 6

COME ON!!!!!

mxz

04-26-2013, 01:51 PM

missing boxes again

* got 10,

*reopen app. shows up only 5

*robbed more. got 7

*reopen app. show only 6

COME ON!!!!!This has been explained countless times...they're being double counted when you get them. Heck, it's even in post 3.

You look like a whiner when you just B&M without bothering to read.

* got 10,

*reopen app. shows up only 5

*robbed more. got 7

*reopen app. show only 6

COME ON!!!!!This has been explained countless times...they're being double counted when you get them. Heck, it's even in post 3.

You look like a whiner when you just B&M without bothering to read.

OneHoop

04-26-2013, 01:53 PM

I'm going to try to do this, thinking that we could get a decent approximation of drop rates if enough people do it (and assuming that Tommy Two Toes will!).

updated: 4/28 3:47pm PDT

Doing pretty well so far... too bad it's only for a case auction! :)

Im afraid that my log is not 100%. :( I had to reconstruct several opens that I didn't record and don't trust my memory entirely. I may abandon it altogether, since it's sort of a pain but for now:

cash opens: 52/100=52.0%

This still feels like a quite lucky event for me, with a low overall number of BLNTs ("Better Luck Next Time"s). Though it is not a statistical sample and can neither prove nor disprove my hypothesis that successful opens are high when far from a prize and lower when approaching a prize, this limited data set does not support that hypothesis.

iP5, LV108iPod3, LV95iP4, LV35Have:%SuccOpens

1.Cu Spindle1.Cu Spindle, BLNTx21.Cu Spindle, BLNTx30:100%

2.Cu Spindle2.Cu Spindle, BLNTx32.Cu Spindle1:100%

3.Cu Spindle3.Cu Spindle3.Cu Spindle, BLNTx22:100%

4.Cu Spindle4.Cu Spindle, BLNTx24.Cu Spindle3:100%

5.Cu Spindle5.Cu Spindle, BLNTx65.Cu Spindle, BLNT4:100%

300RP6.Cu Spindle, BLNT100RP5:50%

6.Cu Spindle7.Cu Spindle, BLNTx2Pimp's Lowrider

$50kRacerZ6.Cu Spindle,BLNT

$50kEnforcerJacketBomb Squad Suit,BLNTx2

7.Cu Spindle8.Cu Spindle, BLNTx27.Cu Spindle6:50%

8. Cu Spindle300RP, BLNTTrick Razor

$10k, BLNTx2$10k, BLNT$6k, BLNT

RacerZ, BLNTx2RacerZTrick Razor

$50kTrick Razor, BLNTx2

Enforcer Jacket8.Cu Spindle,BLNT7:33%

9.Cu Spindle9.CuSpindle

Enforcer Jacket, BLNT$6k

RacerZ, BLNTx2Pimp's Lowrider, BLNTx2

Deviant Cloak, BLNTx5

RacerZ

Deviant Cloak, BLNT8:?

9:?

updated: 4/28 3:47pm PDT

Doing pretty well so far... too bad it's only for a case auction! :)

Im afraid that my log is not 100%. :( I had to reconstruct several opens that I didn't record and don't trust my memory entirely. I may abandon it altogether, since it's sort of a pain but for now:

cash opens: 52/100=52.0%

This still feels like a quite lucky event for me, with a low overall number of BLNTs ("Better Luck Next Time"s). Though it is not a statistical sample and can neither prove nor disprove my hypothesis that successful opens are high when far from a prize and lower when approaching a prize, this limited data set does not support that hypothesis.

iP5, LV108iPod3, LV95iP4, LV35Have:%SuccOpens

1.Cu Spindle1.Cu Spindle, BLNTx21.Cu Spindle, BLNTx30:100%

2.Cu Spindle2.Cu Spindle, BLNTx32.Cu Spindle1:100%

3.Cu Spindle3.Cu Spindle3.Cu Spindle, BLNTx22:100%

4.Cu Spindle4.Cu Spindle, BLNTx24.Cu Spindle3:100%

5.Cu Spindle5.Cu Spindle, BLNTx65.Cu Spindle, BLNT4:100%

300RP6.Cu Spindle, BLNT100RP5:50%

6.Cu Spindle7.Cu Spindle, BLNTx2Pimp's Lowrider

$50kRacerZ6.Cu Spindle,BLNT

$50kEnforcerJacketBomb Squad Suit,BLNTx2

7.Cu Spindle8.Cu Spindle, BLNTx27.Cu Spindle6:50%

8. Cu Spindle300RP, BLNTTrick Razor

$10k, BLNTx2$10k, BLNT$6k, BLNT

RacerZ, BLNTx2RacerZTrick Razor

$50kTrick Razor, BLNTx2

Enforcer Jacket8.Cu Spindle,BLNT7:33%

9.Cu Spindle9.CuSpindle

Enforcer Jacket, BLNT$6k

RacerZ, BLNTx2Pimp's Lowrider, BLNTx2

Deviant Cloak, BLNTx5

RacerZ

Deviant Cloak, BLNT8:?

9:?

CohibAA

04-26-2013, 02:11 PM

Woohoo... 3 for 3 on cash opens. Must mean I'm doomed for the endgame.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-A80qZ98cS-o/UXrnC5hbsDI/AAAAAAAADPs/sa7xdyDKgnI/s200/Copper_Spindle.png (http://crimecitysyndicate.blogspot.com/2013/04/construction-box-event.html)

:rolleyes:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-A80qZ98cS-o/UXrnC5hbsDI/AAAAAAAADPs/sa7xdyDKgnI/s200/Copper_Spindle.png (http://crimecitysyndicate.blogspot.com/2013/04/construction-box-event.html)

:rolleyes:

Scarface78

04-26-2013, 04:32 PM

Woohoo... 3 for 3 on cash opens. Must mean I'm doomed for the endgame.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-A80qZ98cS-o/UXrnC5hbsDI/AAAAAAAADPs/sa7xdyDKgnI/s200/Copper_Spindle.png (http://crimecitysyndicate.blogspot.com/2013/04/construction-box-event.html)

:rolleyes:

I wish I could use some of your luck, got only one open, and 4 BLNT so far... how can be possible get only BLNT in sequence at the beggining???

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-A80qZ98cS-o/UXrnC5hbsDI/AAAAAAAADPs/sa7xdyDKgnI/s200/Copper_Spindle.png (http://crimecitysyndicate.blogspot.com/2013/04/construction-box-event.html)

:rolleyes:

I wish I could use some of your luck, got only one open, and 4 BLNT so far... how can be possible get only BLNT in sequence at the beggining???

BigMoney

04-26-2013, 06:04 PM

I wish I could use some of your luck, got only one open, and 4 BLNT so far... how can be possible get only BLNT in sequence at the beggining???

One way is by having no service/ability to transfer data while doing a cash open.

One way is by having no service/ability to transfer data while doing a cash open.

Kidkiller

04-26-2013, 06:21 PM

Ding ding here someone that have 13 copper. Maybe I can go higher in this leaderboard than last time.

hydesd2

04-26-2013, 07:56 PM

So if you don't make top 250 then there are no other prizes?? Sorry flr the newb question

panty sniffer

04-26-2013, 08:10 PM

there's alsoa top 25 prize but don't count on getting it unless you're spending ALOT ofgold.

Then there's always the random, lesser prizes for opening the boxes no matter how many spindle thingies you've obtained. They're similar to matching 2 or 3 on a scratch-off.

Edit: There's a;lso a prize for 1st place but your name has to be TYLER DURDEN to get it. You guys see the stats on that thing? WOW!

Then there's always the random, lesser prizes for opening the boxes no matter how many spindle thingies you've obtained. They're similar to matching 2 or 3 on a scratch-off.

Edit: There's a;lso a prize for 1st place but your name has to be TYLER DURDEN to get it. You guys see the stats on that thing? WOW!

OneHoop

04-28-2013, 01:56 PM

Still updating my log in post #9 (http://www.funzio.com/forum/showthread.php?52704-Construction-Crates&p=725994&viewfull=1#post725994)

No one else joined me :(

This still feels like a quite lucky event for me, with a low overall number of BLNTs ("Better Luck Next Time"s). Though it is not a statistical sample and can neither prove nor disprove my hypothesis that successful opens are high when far from a prize and lower when approaching a prize, this limited data set does not support that hypothesis.

No one else joined me :(

This still feels like a quite lucky event for me, with a low overall number of BLNTs ("Better Luck Next Time"s). Though it is not a statistical sample and can neither prove nor disprove my hypothesis that successful opens are high when far from a prize and lower when approaching a prize, this limited data set does not support that hypothesis.

OneHoop

04-28-2013, 02:35 PM

So I was going back in the forum to find other case auctions where people did log their progress. There's a fair number who logged their progress in the Decorative Case event last February, and I thought that I would compile their findings up to case #10 along with mine from this event for a closer to statistical sample, but within that same thread I found this:

I download the file, then put it through a program that automatically spaces it out and puts it into a legible and easy to read text file. Then it's just a matter of understanding what it's referring to.

Odds based on how many tokens you have as usual:

0: 100%

1: 90%

2: 80%

3: 70.114% (61 out of 87)

4: 60%

5: 50%

6: 59.82% (67 out of 112)

7: 30.21% (29 out of 96)

8: 30.21% (29 out of 96)

9+: 30.21% (29 out of 96)

Back to my PvP action!

Again, these intervals are just estimates. I'm not sure if it stops at 9 or if for instance these intervals happen every other token milestone. There are only 10 odds in the file so it can either be done every 2 or the odds can stay constant throughout the entire last 10 items. In accordance with the odds that I've seen, it seems more reasonable that it it done the way that I have provided because I never am at 10 opens and get 50% item rates.

So, the answer that I seeking was already in front of me, I'd just missed it! I will continue logging my progress through Cu Spindle #10 and compile it with those who logged from that previous event to see if we can ascertain whether the rates correspond to levels or to two-level increments, but it should be easy to compile probabilities once we know if the above odds correspond to single-items or dual-items.

Like other free players, I almost always get to #10, but almost never to #15. Since I'm doing so well this time, I hope to get to #15 on at least 2 of my accounts, but time will tell. I'm almost certainly in the land of fancy jackets and cash/RP rewards at this point even if the BLNTs stay low.

M@

I download the file, then put it through a program that automatically spaces it out and puts it into a legible and easy to read text file. Then it's just a matter of understanding what it's referring to.

Odds based on how many tokens you have as usual:

0: 100%

1: 90%

2: 80%

3: 70.114% (61 out of 87)

4: 60%

5: 50%

6: 59.82% (67 out of 112)

7: 30.21% (29 out of 96)

8: 30.21% (29 out of 96)

9+: 30.21% (29 out of 96)

Back to my PvP action!

Again, these intervals are just estimates. I'm not sure if it stops at 9 or if for instance these intervals happen every other token milestone. There are only 10 odds in the file so it can either be done every 2 or the odds can stay constant throughout the entire last 10 items. In accordance with the odds that I've seen, it seems more reasonable that it it done the way that I have provided because I never am at 10 opens and get 50% item rates.

So, the answer that I seeking was already in front of me, I'd just missed it! I will continue logging my progress through Cu Spindle #10 and compile it with those who logged from that previous event to see if we can ascertain whether the rates correspond to levels or to two-level increments, but it should be easy to compile probabilities once we know if the above odds correspond to single-items or dual-items.

Like other free players, I almost always get to #10, but almost never to #15. Since I'm doing so well this time, I hope to get to #15 on at least 2 of my accounts, but time will tell. I'm almost certainly in the land of fancy jackets and cash/RP rewards at this point even if the BLNTs stay low.

M@

Brahmin

04-28-2013, 03:52 PM

Well I'm up to two extra mafia on this one, I feel like I've been slapped twice.:(

BigMoney

04-28-2013, 07:04 PM

Still updating my log in post #9 (http://www.funzio.com/forum/showthread.php?52704-Construction-Crates&p=725994&viewfull=1#post725994)

No one else joined me :(

This still feels like a quite lucky event for me, with a low overall number of BLNTs ("Better Luck Next Time"s). Though it is not a statistical sample and can neither prove nor disprove my hypothesis that successful opens are high when far from a prize and lower when approaching a prize, this limited data set does not support that hypothesis.

I haven't been doing cash opens, but I paid attention to the rate of success of gold opens for you last time after 20 items! And I haven't been keeping meticulous track this event, but I'm doing 100% gold opens, no time resets, and seeing how many gold opens it takes to reach 20 items. I'm currently at 14 spindles with 40 gold opens. I'll keep better track of it for you now.

41. Copper Spindle (#15).

42. Deviant Coat

43. Enforcer Jacket

44. Copper Spindle (#16)

45. $10k cash (h8 u)

46. Copper Spindle (#17)

47. Copper Spindle (#18)

48. Racer Z

49. Racer Z

50. Copper Spindle (#19)

51. Copper Spindle (#20)

52. (cash) BLNT

53. (cash) BLNT

54. (cash) BLNT

55. (cash) Copper Spindle (#21)

56. (gold again) $10k cash

57. Copper Spindle (#22)

58. Copper Spindle (#23)

59. $10k cash

60. 300RP

61. 300RP

62. Copper Spindle (#24)

63. Racer Z

64. Hitman's Sniper Rifle

65. Racer Z

66. Racer Z

67. Copper Spindle (#25)

68. $10K cash

69. $50K cash

70. Racer Z

71. $50K cash

72. Deviant Coat

73. Deviant Coat

74. $50K cash

75. $50K cash

76. 300RP

77. Copper Spindle (#26)

78. $10K cash

79. $50K cash

80. Copper Spindle (#27)

81. Racer Z

82. Copper Spindle (#28)

83. Copper Spindle (#29)

84. $10k cash

85. Racer Z

86. $10k cash (h8 u so much)

87. Copper spindle (#30)

88. Copper Spindle (#31)

89. $10K cash

90. Copper Spindle (#32)

91. Enforcer Jacket

92. Hitman's Sniper Rifle

93. $10k cash

94. $10k cash

95. $50k cash

96. Copper Spindle (#33)

97. Copper Spindle (#34)

98. $10k cash

99. Enforcer Jacket

100. Hitman's Sniper Rifle

101. Copper Spindle (#35)

102. Copper Spindle (#36)

103. Deviant Coat

104. Copper Spindle (#37)

105. Copper Spindle (#38)

106. Enforcer Jacket

107. Enforcer Jacket

108. Hitman's Sniper Rifle

109. Copper Spindle (#39)

110. $10k cash

111. Racer Z

112. Racer Z

113. Copper Spindle (#40)

114. Copper Spindle (#41)

115. [panicked timer resets while leaderboard is frozen] 300RP, Deviant Coat, 300RP, $10k cash, 300RP, $10k cash, Copper Spindle (#42)

(Okay, I barely got any spindles yesterday, and now I'm on a roll. Judging by how the Top 250 mark hasn't moved since I started paying attention to it, I'm starting to think that the odds of getting a spindle are tied to how many other people are opening boxes at the same time as you-- similar to how people believe you're more likely to get the 10th item of a collect-10 on the first day, perhaps because relatively few people try to do that compared to the entire CC population).

(was trying to stay out of the race for top 250 and switched to cash opens, though might switch back to gold again if I think I can make it, which I probably will)

EDIT: I'm more curious to see how fast the leaderboard moves, especially in the waning hours.

3d:15h:00m remaining - (1) 356 (25) 65 (250) 20

3d:14h:00m remaining - (1) 360 (25) 68 (250) 20

3d:13h:00m remaining - (1) 369 (25) 68 (250) 20

3d:11h:50m remaining - (1) 375 (25) 68 (250) 20

3d:10h:50m remaining - (1) 380 (25) 68 (250) 20

3d:09h:45m remaining - (1) 382 (25) 69 (250) 20

3d:08h:45m remaining - (1) 382 (25) 69 (250) 20

3d:07h:45m remaining - (1) 385 (25) 70 (250) 20

3d:06h:45m remaining - (1) 385 (25) 72 (250) 20

3d:05h:30m remaining - (1) 385 (25) 72 (250) 20

3d:04h:30m remaining - (1) 385 (25) 75 (250) 21

3d:00h:30m remaining - (1) 400 (25) 79 (250) 21

2d:23h:30m remaining - (1) 400 (25) 79 (250) 21

2d:19h:45m remaining - (1) 405 (25) 80 (250) 22

2d:19h:45m remaining - (1) 405 (25) 80 (250) 22

2d:18h:00m remaining - (1) 408 (25) 81 (250) 22

2d:15h:50m remaining - (1) 422 (25) 81 (250) 22

2d:15h:20m remaining - (1) 422 (25) 81 (250) 22

2d:14h:50m remaining - (1) 425 (25) 82 (250) 22

2d:13h:50m remaining - (1) 435 (25) 83 (250) 23

2d:13h:00m remaining - (1) 439 (25) 85 (250) 23

2d:12h:00m remaining - (1) 444 (25) 85 (250) 23

2d:11h:00m remaining - (1) 444 (25) 86 (250) 23

2d:09h:45m remaining - (1) 444 (25) 86 (250) 23

2d:08h:45m remaining - (1) 444 (25) 90 (250) 23

2d:07h:45m remaining - (1) 444 (25) 90 (250) 23

2d:06h:45m remaining - (1) 444 (25) 90 (250) 23

2d:05h:00m remaining - (1) 444 (25) 91 (250) 23

2d:04h:45m remaining - (1) 444 (25) 93 (250) 23

2d:04h:00m remaining - (1) 444 (25) 95 (250) 24

1d:23h:30m remaining - (1) 444 (25) 95 (250) 25

1d:20h:00m remaining - (1) 444 (25) 103 (250) 25

1d:18h:00m remaining - (1) 444 (25) 109 (250) 25

1d:16h:45m remaining - (1) 444 (25) 109 (250) 25

1d:15h:15m remaining - (1) 462 (25) 111 (250) 26

1d:14h:15m remaining - (1) 465 (25) 113 (250) 26

1d:12h:10m remaining - (1) 465 (25) 113 (250) 26

1d:11h:10m remaining - (1) 465 (25) 113 (250) 26

1d:10h:10m remaining - (1) 465 (25) 113 (250) 27

1d:09h:10m remaining - (1) 465 (25) 113 (250) 27

1d:08h:10m remaining - (1) 466 (25) 118 (250) 27

1d:07h:00m remaining - (1) 466 (25) 118 (250) 27

1d:06h:00m remaining - (1) 466 (25) 120 (250) 27

1d:05h:00m remaining - (1) 466 (25) 120 (250) 27

1d:04h:00m remaining - (1) 466 (25) 120 (250) 28

1d:00h:30m remaining - (1) 481 (25) 133 (250) 28

0d:21h:00m remaining - (1) 481 (25) 138 (250) 29

0d:20h:00m remaining - (1) 481 (25) 142 (250) 29

0d:19h:00m remaining - (1) 481 (25) 145 (250) 30

0d:18h:00m remaining - (1) 481 (25) 146 (250) 30

0d:17h:00m remaining - (1) 481 (25) 149 (250) 30

0d:15h:00m remaining - (1) 483 (25) 152 (250) 31

0d:14h:00m remaining - (1) 493 (25) 155 (250) 31

0d:13h:00m remaining - (1) 500 (25) 155 (250) 31

0d:12h:00m remaining - (1) 501 (25) 155 (250) 32

0d:11h:00m remaining - (1) 501 (25) 158 (250) 32

0d:10h:00m remaining - (1) 501 (25) 159 (250) 32

0d:09h:00m remaining - (1) 501 (25) 163 (250) 32

0d:08h:00m remaining - (1) 501 (25) 163 (250) 33

0d:07h:00m remaining - (1) 503 (25) 166 (250) 33

0d:06h:00m remaining - (1) 519 (25) 169 (250) 34

0d:05h:00m remaining - (1) 519 (25) 169 (250) 34

0d:04h:00m remaining - (1) 519 (25) 169 (250) 34

0d:03h:00m remaining - (1) 519 (25) 176 (250) 35

0d:02h:00m remaining - (1) 519 (25) 176 (250) 35

0d:01h:00m remaining - (1) 519 (25) 192 (250) 36

0d:00h:00m remaining - (1) 530 (25) 198 (250) 38

No one else joined me :(

This still feels like a quite lucky event for me, with a low overall number of BLNTs ("Better Luck Next Time"s). Though it is not a statistical sample and can neither prove nor disprove my hypothesis that successful opens are high when far from a prize and lower when approaching a prize, this limited data set does not support that hypothesis.

I haven't been doing cash opens, but I paid attention to the rate of success of gold opens for you last time after 20 items! And I haven't been keeping meticulous track this event, but I'm doing 100% gold opens, no time resets, and seeing how many gold opens it takes to reach 20 items. I'm currently at 14 spindles with 40 gold opens. I'll keep better track of it for you now.

41. Copper Spindle (#15).

42. Deviant Coat

43. Enforcer Jacket

44. Copper Spindle (#16)

45. $10k cash (h8 u)

46. Copper Spindle (#17)

47. Copper Spindle (#18)

48. Racer Z

49. Racer Z

50. Copper Spindle (#19)

51. Copper Spindle (#20)

52. (cash) BLNT

53. (cash) BLNT

54. (cash) BLNT

55. (cash) Copper Spindle (#21)

56. (gold again) $10k cash

57. Copper Spindle (#22)

58. Copper Spindle (#23)

59. $10k cash

60. 300RP

61. 300RP

62. Copper Spindle (#24)

63. Racer Z

64. Hitman's Sniper Rifle

65. Racer Z

66. Racer Z

67. Copper Spindle (#25)

68. $10K cash

69. $50K cash

70. Racer Z

71. $50K cash

72. Deviant Coat

73. Deviant Coat

74. $50K cash

75. $50K cash

76. 300RP

77. Copper Spindle (#26)

78. $10K cash

79. $50K cash

80. Copper Spindle (#27)

81. Racer Z

82. Copper Spindle (#28)

83. Copper Spindle (#29)

84. $10k cash

85. Racer Z

86. $10k cash (h8 u so much)

87. Copper spindle (#30)

88. Copper Spindle (#31)

89. $10K cash

90. Copper Spindle (#32)

91. Enforcer Jacket

92. Hitman's Sniper Rifle

93. $10k cash

94. $10k cash

95. $50k cash

96. Copper Spindle (#33)

97. Copper Spindle (#34)

98. $10k cash

99. Enforcer Jacket

100. Hitman's Sniper Rifle

101. Copper Spindle (#35)

102. Copper Spindle (#36)

103. Deviant Coat

104. Copper Spindle (#37)

105. Copper Spindle (#38)

106. Enforcer Jacket

107. Enforcer Jacket

108. Hitman's Sniper Rifle

109. Copper Spindle (#39)

110. $10k cash

111. Racer Z

112. Racer Z

113. Copper Spindle (#40)

114. Copper Spindle (#41)

115. [panicked timer resets while leaderboard is frozen] 300RP, Deviant Coat, 300RP, $10k cash, 300RP, $10k cash, Copper Spindle (#42)

(Okay, I barely got any spindles yesterday, and now I'm on a roll. Judging by how the Top 250 mark hasn't moved since I started paying attention to it, I'm starting to think that the odds of getting a spindle are tied to how many other people are opening boxes at the same time as you-- similar to how people believe you're more likely to get the 10th item of a collect-10 on the first day, perhaps because relatively few people try to do that compared to the entire CC population).

(was trying to stay out of the race for top 250 and switched to cash opens, though might switch back to gold again if I think I can make it, which I probably will)

EDIT: I'm more curious to see how fast the leaderboard moves, especially in the waning hours.

3d:15h:00m remaining - (1) 356 (25) 65 (250) 20

3d:14h:00m remaining - (1) 360 (25) 68 (250) 20

3d:13h:00m remaining - (1) 369 (25) 68 (250) 20

3d:11h:50m remaining - (1) 375 (25) 68 (250) 20

3d:10h:50m remaining - (1) 380 (25) 68 (250) 20

3d:09h:45m remaining - (1) 382 (25) 69 (250) 20

3d:08h:45m remaining - (1) 382 (25) 69 (250) 20

3d:07h:45m remaining - (1) 385 (25) 70 (250) 20

3d:06h:45m remaining - (1) 385 (25) 72 (250) 20

3d:05h:30m remaining - (1) 385 (25) 72 (250) 20

3d:04h:30m remaining - (1) 385 (25) 75 (250) 21

3d:00h:30m remaining - (1) 400 (25) 79 (250) 21

2d:23h:30m remaining - (1) 400 (25) 79 (250) 21

2d:19h:45m remaining - (1) 405 (25) 80 (250) 22

2d:19h:45m remaining - (1) 405 (25) 80 (250) 22

2d:18h:00m remaining - (1) 408 (25) 81 (250) 22

2d:15h:50m remaining - (1) 422 (25) 81 (250) 22

2d:15h:20m remaining - (1) 422 (25) 81 (250) 22

2d:14h:50m remaining - (1) 425 (25) 82 (250) 22

2d:13h:50m remaining - (1) 435 (25) 83 (250) 23

2d:13h:00m remaining - (1) 439 (25) 85 (250) 23

2d:12h:00m remaining - (1) 444 (25) 85 (250) 23

2d:11h:00m remaining - (1) 444 (25) 86 (250) 23

2d:09h:45m remaining - (1) 444 (25) 86 (250) 23

2d:08h:45m remaining - (1) 444 (25) 90 (250) 23

2d:07h:45m remaining - (1) 444 (25) 90 (250) 23

2d:06h:45m remaining - (1) 444 (25) 90 (250) 23

2d:05h:00m remaining - (1) 444 (25) 91 (250) 23

2d:04h:45m remaining - (1) 444 (25) 93 (250) 23

2d:04h:00m remaining - (1) 444 (25) 95 (250) 24

1d:23h:30m remaining - (1) 444 (25) 95 (250) 25

1d:20h:00m remaining - (1) 444 (25) 103 (250) 25

1d:18h:00m remaining - (1) 444 (25) 109 (250) 25

1d:16h:45m remaining - (1) 444 (25) 109 (250) 25

1d:15h:15m remaining - (1) 462 (25) 111 (250) 26

1d:14h:15m remaining - (1) 465 (25) 113 (250) 26

1d:12h:10m remaining - (1) 465 (25) 113 (250) 26

1d:11h:10m remaining - (1) 465 (25) 113 (250) 26

1d:10h:10m remaining - (1) 465 (25) 113 (250) 27

1d:09h:10m remaining - (1) 465 (25) 113 (250) 27

1d:08h:10m remaining - (1) 466 (25) 118 (250) 27

1d:07h:00m remaining - (1) 466 (25) 118 (250) 27

1d:06h:00m remaining - (1) 466 (25) 120 (250) 27

1d:05h:00m remaining - (1) 466 (25) 120 (250) 27

1d:04h:00m remaining - (1) 466 (25) 120 (250) 28

1d:00h:30m remaining - (1) 481 (25) 133 (250) 28

0d:21h:00m remaining - (1) 481 (25) 138 (250) 29

0d:20h:00m remaining - (1) 481 (25) 142 (250) 29

0d:19h:00m remaining - (1) 481 (25) 145 (250) 30

0d:18h:00m remaining - (1) 481 (25) 146 (250) 30

0d:17h:00m remaining - (1) 481 (25) 149 (250) 30

0d:15h:00m remaining - (1) 483 (25) 152 (250) 31

0d:14h:00m remaining - (1) 493 (25) 155 (250) 31

0d:13h:00m remaining - (1) 500 (25) 155 (250) 31

0d:12h:00m remaining - (1) 501 (25) 155 (250) 32

0d:11h:00m remaining - (1) 501 (25) 158 (250) 32

0d:10h:00m remaining - (1) 501 (25) 159 (250) 32

0d:09h:00m remaining - (1) 501 (25) 163 (250) 32

0d:08h:00m remaining - (1) 501 (25) 163 (250) 33

0d:07h:00m remaining - (1) 503 (25) 166 (250) 33

0d:06h:00m remaining - (1) 519 (25) 169 (250) 34

0d:05h:00m remaining - (1) 519 (25) 169 (250) 34

0d:04h:00m remaining - (1) 519 (25) 169 (250) 34

0d:03h:00m remaining - (1) 519 (25) 176 (250) 35

0d:02h:00m remaining - (1) 519 (25) 176 (250) 35

0d:01h:00m remaining - (1) 519 (25) 192 (250) 36

0d:00h:00m remaining - (1) 530 (25) 198 (250) 38

Kidkiller

04-28-2013, 09:15 PM

28 copper spindle by now... Just got to hold my advantage , at fifty I think it'll be safe for a place in top 250. Can't compete with the othe rfor the top 25.

BigMoney

04-28-2013, 10:11 PM

So, the answer that I seeking was already in front of me, I'd just missed it! I will continue logging my progress through Cu Spindle #10 and compile it with those who logged from that previous event to see if we can ascertain whether the rates correspond to levels or to two-level increments, but it should be easy to compile probabilities once we know if the above odds correspond to single-items or dual-items.

M@

Yes, but isn't that the probability of a successful cash open (by successful open, I mean open that doesn't result in a BLNT-- i.e. loot/RP/cash/spindle/etc)?

Personally, I think both the probability of a successful open AND the probability of a spindle (or whatever item is the flavor of the week) GIVEN that the open was successful are both important. I'm making the assumption that the ONLY difference between cash and gold opens is that the gold open is 100% a successful open-- and that the conditional probability Pr(spindle | successful open) is the same for both cash and gold opens.

I would still be interested to see your compiled cash open results, as I could combine it with my gold open results to find the best way to maximize your results while minimizing gold costs, i.e. how to get 20 spindles (or 15, or whatever) while using the least amount of gold-- I suspect it involves starting with cash opens and transitioning to gold opens later, but I could be wrong. I'm also going to keep an eye on the leaderboards, since it would be useful to know approximately how many vaults you need to hit the leaderboards. I have a vague recollection of the leaderboard totals from the last collect-20 (which I thought had better prizes, so I thought this leaderboard would be easier, but the top 250 place is moving a lot faster than the previous event). So we'll see.

M@

Yes, but isn't that the probability of a successful cash open (by successful open, I mean open that doesn't result in a BLNT-- i.e. loot/RP/cash/spindle/etc)?

Personally, I think both the probability of a successful open AND the probability of a spindle (or whatever item is the flavor of the week) GIVEN that the open was successful are both important. I'm making the assumption that the ONLY difference between cash and gold opens is that the gold open is 100% a successful open-- and that the conditional probability Pr(spindle | successful open) is the same for both cash and gold opens.

I would still be interested to see your compiled cash open results, as I could combine it with my gold open results to find the best way to maximize your results while minimizing gold costs, i.e. how to get 20 spindles (or 15, or whatever) while using the least amount of gold-- I suspect it involves starting with cash opens and transitioning to gold opens later, but I could be wrong. I'm also going to keep an eye on the leaderboards, since it would be useful to know approximately how many vaults you need to hit the leaderboards. I have a vague recollection of the leaderboard totals from the last collect-20 (which I thought had better prizes, so I thought this leaderboard would be easier, but the top 250 place is moving a lot faster than the previous event). So we'll see.

dudeman

04-28-2013, 10:23 PM

If you have some hours to burn, there is almost a year's worth of progress logs for collect-X events. You just have to deal with the pita stf function. I haven't tried, but if you're curious it would probably be good to start with keywords: event, progress and your (log is too short).

BigMoney

04-28-2013, 11:13 PM

28 copper spindle by now... Just got to hold my advantage , at fifty I think it'll be safe for a place in top 250. Can't compete with the othe rfor the top 25.

You're not going to be getting those next 20 spindles as easily as you were getting the previous 20, FYI. Last event, after #20, I was getting the "spindles" at about a 1 to 6.5 rate using only gold opens. I finished with 43 spindles, which according to my game screen was good for 161st place, and according to the PDF stickied in this forum, was good for 147th (don't know what accounts for that discrepancy there). The mark for Top 250 was 38 when there was 30 minutes remaining when they froze the leaderboards (which is truly, truly, evil).

If you have some hours to burn, there is almost a year's worth of progress logs for collect-X events. You just have to deal with the pita stf function. I haven't tried, but if you're curious it would probably be good to start with keywords: event, progress and your (log is too short).

I don't know what a "stf function" is, but I will try searching the forums for progress logs probably some time tomorrow or so if I have the time. I know I'm in trouble when I'm doing more work analyzing this game than my real work, haha.

You're not going to be getting those next 20 spindles as easily as you were getting the previous 20, FYI. Last event, after #20, I was getting the "spindles" at about a 1 to 6.5 rate using only gold opens. I finished with 43 spindles, which according to my game screen was good for 161st place, and according to the PDF stickied in this forum, was good for 147th (don't know what accounts for that discrepancy there). The mark for Top 250 was 38 when there was 30 minutes remaining when they froze the leaderboards (which is truly, truly, evil).

If you have some hours to burn, there is almost a year's worth of progress logs for collect-X events. You just have to deal with the pita stf function. I haven't tried, but if you're curious it would probably be good to start with keywords: event, progress and your (log is too short).

I don't know what a "stf function" is, but I will try searching the forums for progress logs probably some time tomorrow or so if I have the time. I know I'm in trouble when I'm doing more work analyzing this game than my real work, haha.

Kidkiller

04-28-2013, 11:47 PM

Lol I was ranked 125th on last event with 53 items in pocket

BigMoney

04-28-2013, 11:50 PM

Lol I was ranked 125th on last event with 53 items in pocket

That was exactly what I didn't want to do-- pretty much every "spindle" after 40 for you was a complete waste of gold. Ouch. I don't even want to know what the people who got 26-30th feel.

That was exactly what I didn't want to do-- pretty much every "spindle" after 40 for you was a complete waste of gold. Ouch. I don't even want to know what the people who got 26-30th feel.

dudeman

04-29-2013, 12:25 AM

I don't know what a "stf function" is, but I will try searching the forums ...

...

When the answer that you want

Is in the question that you state

...

http://youtu.be/oFObU6-qN_k

:cool:

...

When the answer that you want

Is in the question that you state

...

http://youtu.be/oFObU6-qN_k

:cool:

BigMoney

04-29-2013, 12:28 AM

...

When the answer that you want

Is in the question that you state

...

http://youtu.be/oFObU6-qN_k

:cool:

Ah. The word "function" is what really threw me off. I thought you perhaps typoed "std function," which is something in C++. I'm definitely overthinking things here. Thanks. And come on, "pita stf function" definitely sounds like something highly technical! :D

When the answer that you want

Is in the question that you state

...

http://youtu.be/oFObU6-qN_k

:cool:

Ah. The word "function" is what really threw me off. I thought you perhaps typoed "std function," which is something in C++. I'm definitely overthinking things here. Thanks. And come on, "pita stf function" definitely sounds like something highly technical! :D

Kidkiller

04-29-2013, 12:42 AM

Seem the rule of 30% chance of gaining a copper spindle with gold option still apply after 30. Anyway I saw a picture from a big timer he gots 30k gold lol---> that those guy that got so much item from box leaderboards event to get in 25th to 1st. I depleted roughly 3 vault to get to 34 now. Maybe 2 and a half. Since I didn't kill the one I buyed earlier by now with 20 boxe opening with timer reset. Yeah its stupid I just can't wait.

dudeman

04-29-2013, 01:10 AM

Ah. The word "function" is what really threw me off. I thought you perhaps typoed "std function," which is something in C++. I'm definitely overthinking things here. Thanks. And come on, "pita stf function" definitely sounds like something highly technical! :D

When I was younger I sometimes used to over-think things, when in reality the best solution was often the kiss solution. I apologize if I was overly technical or slangy. Allow me to explain:

"Pita" = "Pain in the ass"

"Stf" = "Search the forum"

"Kiss" = "Keep it simple stupid"

The "double f" wasn't a typo... :cool:

When I was younger I sometimes used to over-think things, when in reality the best solution was often the kiss solution. I apologize if I was overly technical or slangy. Allow me to explain:

"Pita" = "Pain in the ass"

"Stf" = "Search the forum"

"Kiss" = "Keep it simple stupid"

The "double f" wasn't a typo... :cool:

BigMoney

04-29-2013, 06:38 AM

Just a remark to all since I hit my 20th spindle using only gold opens and no timer resets:

I used 765 gold to get 20 spindles (51 gold opens). I believe that's an unusually high success rate, but since there is still over 3 days left, I probably could have saved some gold by mixing in a bit of cash opens too. Just wanted to give you guys an idea on about how much gold it costs to get those collect-20 items. Your experience may vary.

Edit: dudeman - I luckily caught the "pita" abbreviation, so I only ended up googling "stf function" as opposed to googling "pita stf function." It was close though!

I used 765 gold to get 20 spindles (51 gold opens). I believe that's an unusually high success rate, but since there is still over 3 days left, I probably could have saved some gold by mixing in a bit of cash opens too. Just wanted to give you guys an idea on about how much gold it costs to get those collect-20 items. Your experience may vary.

Edit: dudeman - I luckily caught the "pita" abbreviation, so I only ended up googling "stf function" as opposed to googling "pita stf function." It was close though!

Kidkiller

05-02-2013, 12:15 PM

Event ended whats your rank ?

I'm ranked 55 wit 51 spindle.

I'm ranked 55 wit 51 spindle.

BigMoney

05-02-2013, 06:32 PM

Finished 159th with 42 spindles. I was safely there with 41 spindles in 110 gold opens (no timer resets) - 1650 gold, but I always panic when the leaderboards freeze and spent 210 gold with timer reset/gold opens to get #42. Did a fairly good job minimizing the amount of gold needed to get top 250, if only i hadn't panicked at the last minute (I have no idea how much the leaderboards move when they are frozen in those final moments, but they don't move nearly as much as I thought). Better safe than sorry, I guess.

I kept meticulous track of the leaderboards on page 2. My favorite part is that the #1 TYLER DURDEN had enough spindles to win the event on the second day, with over 300, where second place was something like 288. I can understand having a sizable lead to discourage anyone from even attempting to go for #1, and keeping a lead large enough that someone couldn't even successfully open enough cases in the time the leaderboard was frozen, but... that's some serious overkill finishing with almost twice the number of spindles as second place.

I kept meticulous track of the leaderboards on page 2. My favorite part is that the #1 TYLER DURDEN had enough spindles to win the event on the second day, with over 300, where second place was something like 288. I can understand having a sizable lead to discourage anyone from even attempting to go for #1, and keeping a lead large enough that someone couldn't even successfully open enough cases in the time the leaderboard was frozen, but... that's some serious overkill finishing with almost twice the number of spindles as second place.

Kidkiller

05-02-2013, 06:47 PM

Yeah they probably discuss between themselve who's gonna have the 1st prize so everyon can get one massive bonus items , the top 25 can all be filled with TYLER DURDEN of FC if they want to .

bald zeemer

05-02-2013, 07:23 PM

True, but top 25 isn't worth the gold, so it's really just for the people with so much spare gold that it doesn't matter.

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