stuartb

05-11-2013, 11:02 AM

Some of the Android versions of Modern War continue to display the actual Attack score and actual Defense score generated during an attack. The iOS version was doing this until recently when GREE changed it (again) so that we could not see what was actually happening. Lots of posts about seeing losses when the opponent had 80,000 and the attacker had 125,000, etc.

I gathered statistics on attack and defense scores for one of my LLPs which is Level 83 and has a posted Attack score of around 38,000. In 150 attacks, the actual attack score was lower that the score reported in my profile over 70% of the time, while the defender's actual defense score was higher than the score reported in their profile 66% of the times.

Bottom line, the score showing in iOS for your attack score is not the one being used. There is still a random component, but GREE is not showing us the results any more. But what I see is that the attack score is overstated and the defense score is understated, hence the increased confusion over wins/losses.

I put together a table to show the probability of winning any particular fight, based on my profile attack score and the defender's profile defense score. Here is the table of probabilities, for anyone who is interested:

Opponent's

Relative

Score Prob(W) Prob(L)

1.00 20.9% 79.1%

0.95 28.1% 71.9%

0.90 37.6% 62.4%

0.85 48.8% 51.2%

0.80 60.0% 40.0%

0.75 70.5% 29.5%

0.70 80.3% 19.7%

0.65 89.5% 10.5%

0.60 96.5% 3.5%

0.55 99.7% 0.3%

0.50 100.0% 0.0%

To convert "Opponent's Relative Score" to actual points, just multiply the factor times your own attack score. For example, your score is 80,000 and the opponent has a score of 64,000 (0.80 of 80,000) then you have a 60% chance of beating them on any given attack.

To be absolutely sure of winning, I can only attack people with half my stats, meaning if my attack score is 38,000 then I had better stick to people with 19,000 or less if I want to be SURE of winning. I don't mind losing one here and there, but I am stuck on Muliple Fronts: Operation 37 which requires me to win 40 battles in a row. Statistically speaking, if I have a 99.7% chance of winning each fight, I still have less than a 90% chance of winning 40 in a row. I have to stick to hitting players that have 19,000 or less in order to progress through this particular mission.

I gathered statistics on attack and defense scores for one of my LLPs which is Level 83 and has a posted Attack score of around 38,000. In 150 attacks, the actual attack score was lower that the score reported in my profile over 70% of the time, while the defender's actual defense score was higher than the score reported in their profile 66% of the times.

Bottom line, the score showing in iOS for your attack score is not the one being used. There is still a random component, but GREE is not showing us the results any more. But what I see is that the attack score is overstated and the defense score is understated, hence the increased confusion over wins/losses.

I put together a table to show the probability of winning any particular fight, based on my profile attack score and the defender's profile defense score. Here is the table of probabilities, for anyone who is interested:

Opponent's

Relative

Score Prob(W) Prob(L)

1.00 20.9% 79.1%

0.95 28.1% 71.9%

0.90 37.6% 62.4%

0.85 48.8% 51.2%

0.80 60.0% 40.0%

0.75 70.5% 29.5%

0.70 80.3% 19.7%

0.65 89.5% 10.5%

0.60 96.5% 3.5%

0.55 99.7% 0.3%

0.50 100.0% 0.0%

To convert "Opponent's Relative Score" to actual points, just multiply the factor times your own attack score. For example, your score is 80,000 and the opponent has a score of 64,000 (0.80 of 80,000) then you have a 60% chance of beating them on any given attack.

To be absolutely sure of winning, I can only attack people with half my stats, meaning if my attack score is 38,000 then I had better stick to people with 19,000 or less if I want to be SURE of winning. I don't mind losing one here and there, but I am stuck on Muliple Fronts: Operation 37 which requires me to win 40 battles in a row. Statistically speaking, if I have a 99.7% chance of winning each fight, I still have less than a 90% chance of winning 40 in a row. I have to stick to hitting players that have 19,000 or less in order to progress through this particular mission.